The permit trends reflect stable but limited growth ahead, as single-family starts increased by 0.5%, but multifamily increased by 2.2%. Permits were up by 3.3% compared to 2019 in single-family but down by 13.6% in multifamily. Regarding housing starts, multifamily starts increased by 6.3% while single-family increased by only 0.2%.Īfter the October increase, total starts were down 4.2% from a year ago but were up 3.0% compared to October 2019. The increases in starts and permits were in single-family and multifamily. Permits increased by 1.1% when a 1.4% decline had been expected. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of starts increased by 1.9% when a small decline of 0.6% was expected, but September’s increase of 7.0% initially reported was revised to a smaller increase of 3.1%. Residential construction appears to be stabilizing as starts and permits both increased slightly in October. Adjusted for inflation using the CPI, retail sales declined 0.2% for the month and were down 0.7% from a year ago. Motor vehicles and parts was up 3.3% from a year ago, while health and personal care stores (+9.6%) was the category up the most. Gas stations (-7.5%) and furniture, home furnishing, electronics, and appliance stores (-6.8%) were down the most. Retail sales were up 2.5% year over year on a nominal basis, which was down from 4.1% in September and the weakest year-over-year performance since June.Ĭompared with last year, four major categories of 12 were down. The largest monthly declines were in miscellaneous stores (-1.7%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers. Health and personal care stores (1.1%) and food and beverage stores (0.6%) had the largest gains. The auto sector underperformed the rest of the retail market as sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.1% while sales of motor vehicles and parts declined 1.0%.Ĭategory-level performance was mostly negative in October. The 0.1% decline was better than the 0.3% decline expected, and the September increase was upwardly revised to 0.9% from the 0.7% gain first reported. The initial retail sales report for October showed better-than-expected consumer spending, but spending declined, nonetheless. Retail Sales in October Fell but Less than Forecasted The overall CPI fell to 3.2%, its second-lowest reading since March 2021. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI declined to a 4.0% increase from 4.1% previously and the lowest since April 2021. According to AAA, the average price for unleaded declined more than 9% throughout October. Declines in energy, driven by a 5% decline in gas prices, helped produce the aggregate decline. New and used cars both saw declines (0.1 and 0.8%, respectively), but the declines were less than what we have observed in actual transactions. Transportation services saw a 0.8% increase, which was driven by a 1.9% increase in motor vehicle insurance. Housing saw a decelerating increase to 0.3% from a 0.6% jump in September. The core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, increased 0.2%, less than the 0.3% gain in September and what had been expected. Inflation was down from 0.4% in September and lower than the 0.1% gain expected. Inflation cooled more than expected in October as most metrics based on CPI data saw slower paces of increase from September and year over year. New construction trends were all positive in October, indicating some market stabilization.Īuto loan performance deteriorated in October, but the increase in delinquencies slowed. Excluding autos and parts, retail sales increased slightly in October. Miscellaneous stores and motor vehicles and parts had the biggest declines for the month. Retail sales declined in October but came in better than expected. Inflation cooled more than expected in October as most metrics based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data saw slower paces of increase from September and year over year.
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